Which Kevin Hassett Would Lead the Federal Reserve?
Man, it's like 2am here, and I'm scrolling X, coffee gone cold, when bam—another tweet about Kevin Hassett eyeing the Fed chair gig. You know the one? Trump's basically got his hand on Jerome Powell's eject button come May 2026, and Hassett's name is everywhere. Which Kevin Hassett Federal Reserve chair? The nerdy researcher from way back? Or the guy who'd slash rates so fast your head spins?
Let's be real—I've lost sleep over this stuff before. Back in my consulting days, we'd game out Fed picks like it was fantasy football. Folks googling "Kevin Hassett Fed chair odds" or "Hassett vs Warsh" aren't after fluff. They want: Will my mortgage drop? Stocks moon? Or inflation eats us alive? Stick with me... We'll ramble through it, no BS.
That 30-Second "Oh Crap" Summary
(yeah, I needed this myself last night)
- He's the favorite: 80-86% on betting sites like Kalshi. Trump's dude.
- Rate cuts incoming? Super dovish—wants 'em deep, now.
- Your bank account: Cheaper loans, hotter stocks... maybe.
- But wait: Economists yelling "independence killer!" The dollar might tank.
Kinda feels like betting on a home run derby with a piñata bat, right?
Who the Heck is This Guy Anyway?
Picture a kid from Massachusetts, 1962 vintage. Hassett hustles through Swarthmore, grabs a PhD from UPenn, and lands at the Fed in the '90s. Greenspan era—crunching numbers while the dot-com bubble inflated like my grandma's Thanksgiving turkey. Smelled like printer ink and stale donuts in those offices, I bet.
Then he jumps to AEI, writes Dow 36,000—oof, that aged like milk in the sun. (He took heat, owned it kinda.) Advised McCain, Romney... then Trump calls. 2017: Chairs the Council of Economic Advisers. Tax cuts? His baby. Corps go from 35% to 21%—boom, jobs, GDP spike. COVID hits? Back advising, charts everywhere. Now? National Economic Council boss under Trump 2.0.
But here's the messy bit—what most miss. There's old Hassett (data geek) and new Hassett (Trump hype man). Old ones all "tax math matters." New? "Inflation's toast, cut rates yesterday!" It's like he chugged the MAGA Kool-Aid mid-career. (Once saw him on CNBC, tie crooked, dropping truth bombs—kinda inspired.)
The Split Personality: Purist vs. Political Beast
You know that Economist piece? "Which Kevin Hassett would lead the Federal Reserve?" Spot on. Pre-Trump: Solid wonk. Fed researcher, AEI papers on inequality, immigration fixes. Books like Inequality and Tax Policy—dry but smart. Taxes kill growth if botched.
Post-2017? Whew. Tax reform superhero. COVID flubs? Yeah, but rebounded. 2025 vibes: WSJ quotes him—"plenty of room" for big cuts, over 25bps. Slams Powell for "bias." Aligns perfectly with Trump's tariffs + growth jam.
And parentheses moment: (I burned ramen once debating tax policy on a camping trip—flames everywhere, lesson learned: don't multitask hunger.) The point is, Hassett adapts. Purist for Senate hearings, beast for Trump loyalty. Risky? Hell yeah.
How Does a Fed Chair Even Happen? (Step-by-Dumb-Step)
Nominations sound easy. Trump picks, Senate nods. Ha! Powell got grilled; Hassett? Dems will feast.
- Trump drops the name—maybe this week, insiders whisper.
- Hearings: "Dual mandate? Inflation? Politics?" Hassett does hard.
- Senate vote—GOP edge, but squishies balk.
- Sworn in May '26... or "shadow chair" now, pulling strings.
- Runs FOMC—8 rate meets a year. Kingmaker.
Pro tip: Kalshi bets don't lie. 86% Hassett. But 76% economists say nah—too cozy with POTUS.
Pitfall? Senate stall = market freakout. Like that time rates yo-yoed in '19... coffee tasted bitter for weeks.
Hassett vs. The Field: Cage Match Edition
Trump's running an Apprentice reboot. Two Kevins headline. Table time—grab your phone, swipe easy.
| Dude | Fed Time | Rate Vibes | Trump Score | Odds | Market Feels |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hassett | '90s researcher | Cut-cut-CUT! | 11/10 | 80-86% | Stocks 🚀, $ 💸 |
| Warsh | Gov 06-11 | Dovish rules | Solid | 6-13% | TV smooth |
| Waller | Gov now | Balanced | Meh | 8% | Boring safe |
| Bowman | Gov now | Hawk | Meh | 4% | Steady Eddie |
| Rieder | BlackRock boss | Growth guy | Newb | Low | Wall St gloss |
Hassett crushes loyalty. Warsh? Ex-Gov Polish, but less "yes man." Crypto angle—Hassett's Coinbase bag? BTC pumps if he wins.
Hassett Wins:
- Mortgages plummet 1-2%.
- GDP roars (tax + rates).
- Fed slimdown?
Red Flags:
- Tariffs + cuts = '70s inflation deja vu.
- Dollar dumps—bye, imports.
- Politics poison pill.
Investor Hack List:
- [ ] Refi check if rates dip.
- [ ] Stocks/commodities load-up.
- [ ] TIPS/gold for hedges.
- [ ] Kalshi app—live odds.
Your Cash on the Line: Real Wallet Hits
Rates touch everything, man. Hassett's "slash now"? Car payments ease. Houses? Affordable-ish. But tariffs... prices spike, hikes follow?
- Home hunt: 4% 30-year? Party.
- Savings suck: Ditch CDs for stocks.
- Wall St: S&P party.
- Crypto: His holdings scream bullish.
Story time: Buddy's shop exploded post-2018 cuts—Hassett magic. Imagine that + cheap money. (Smelled like fresh-printed cash, felt electric.)
Gear up: The Federal Reserve: A New History by Hetzel nails backstory—**https://www.amazon.com/s?k=federal+reserve+new+history+hetzel&tag=azadaffus-20**. Hassett's The Drift? His Trump glow-up—**https://www.amazon.com/s?k=the+drift+kevin+hassett&tag=azadaffus-20**.
Nerd tip: He hates Fed HQ bloat ($700M overrun). Efficiency purge? Billions saved. What y'all sleep on.
That One Time I Geeked Out with Policy Wonks
2020 AEI Zoom—Hassett's mic crackly, charting vax recovery. Timing off, but nailed wages. Guy pivots like a pro. Fed-bound? Data over dogma. (My cat walked on the keyboard mid-call—pure chaos.)
Don't YOLO one pick. Diversify, breathe.
Alright, Your Play?
Hassett's the horse—dovish fire, Trump lock. Markets are betting big. But whispers kill. Drop comments: Hassett squad? Warsh? Rate nightmares? Let's chat about volatility.
Pocket Cheat Sheet:
- Debts? Refi alert.
- Stocks/real estate go-time.
- Gold hedge.
- Fed calendar tattooed.
Frequently Asked Questions about Which Kevin Hassett Would Lead the Federal Reserve?
Is Kevin Hassett really the top dog for Fed chair over Powell?
Totally—Kalshi's at 86%, CNBC polls 84% say Trump's tapping him. NEC director, inner circle beast. Warsh trailing.
Kevin Hassett Fed chair pros and cons—what's the real deal?
Pros: Rate nukes for growth, tax wizardry, biz boost. Cons: Too Trump-y, inflation trap with tariffs, dollar drama. Economists mostly nope.
Hassett vs Warsh—who ya think Trump picks for Fed?
Hassett's loyalty + dove power (80% odds) smokes Warsh's resume glow. Trump wants cutters—Hassett's it, leaks say.
How bad would Hassett mess with my mortgage rates?
Good news: Faster drops, sub-4% possible. But tariffs bite back. Watch close.
Best books to grok Hassett's Fed takes?
The Drift for his shift, Inequality and Tax Policy roots. Hetzel's Fed history pairs perfectly—dive into "Hassett monetary policy 2025."
